Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 2.561857 3.007933 3.503113 4.092785 4.775068 5.538893 6.458048
2025-10-26 1.787726 2.358539 3.063035 3.992946 5.184315 6.655325 8.604878
2025-11-02 1.292148 1.882446 2.679194 3.825332 5.422564 7.558783 10.619599
2025-11-09 0.957281 1.520718 2.342585 3.615562 5.521144 8.247320 12.416563
2025-11-16 0.758924 1.301109 2.147571 3.545564 5.771269 9.143911 14.595028
2025-11-23 0.620796 1.140313 2.002528 3.510638 6.046530 10.088877 16.946526
2025-11-30 0.548570 1.071480 1.987641 3.673157 6.646135 11.598568 20.359373
2025-12-07 0.469370 0.972285 1.900076 3.690659 6.994335 12.729246 23.277869
2025-12-14 0.401576 0.879717 1.806010 3.676182 7.275342 13.767966 26.150731
2025-12-21 0.348566 0.805175 1.731533 3.682755 7.588773 14.891180 29.293217
2025-12-28 0.332917 0.805518 1.803636 3.984636 8.501554 17.209145 34.882447
2026-01-04 0.300123 0.761385 1.776222 4.077807 9.010703 18.817875 39.303165
2026-01-11 0.271788 0.723252 1.758212 4.194487 9.597496 20.672942 44.474326
2026-01-18 0.239607 0.669421 1.696716 4.207653 9.970862 22.152217 49.083639
2026-01-25 0.203124 0.596689 1.578487 4.072263 9.999624 22.922872 52.324929
2026-02-01 0.168646 0.521215 1.439523 3.863767 9.830526 23.247585 54.652680
2026-02-08 0.146317 0.474131 1.362868 3.794233 9.973909 24.268736 58.608553
2026-02-15 0.128667 0.436455 1.303701 3.758787 10.193087 25.483076 63.129127
2026-02-22 0.121304 0.428338 1.323127 3.932763 10.956598 28.040802 71.007547
2026-03-01 0.109202 0.402353 1.287632 3.951671 11.324720 29.699903 76.947630
2026-03-08 0.097487 0.374811 1.242542 3.936319 11.600390 31.164924 82.578760
2026-03-15 0.087830 0.351945 1.207241 3.943361 11.937336 32.819036 88.849326
2026-03-22 0.087290 0.361557 1.274419 4.265290 13.189446 36.928961 101.682984